I love my iPod. However, I predict that apple
will loose this business to others. The problem is that most people have less
than 2000 songs that they actively listen to. This numberr is not growing, or if
it is growing, it is not growing rapidly. On the other hand the cost of flash is
dropping rapidly. Imagine you could buy a 8G flash card for $50. The only thing
your average cell phone is missing from being a nice MP3 player is the storage.
They have the CPU, battery, and audio circuitry to do it. Every cell phone
provider will just include the storage or will provide a slot where you stuff in
a storage card that you purchase separately. Now Apple could stay in the iTunes
business - it's a nice program to manage you music. However, they will not see
how they can monazite this in any strong way so instead of making it work for
all mp3 players, they will use it to try and promote their own iPod hardware.
Other manufactures will make iPod clones that are just as nice and cell phones
and other devices will erode the market. Eventually apple will exit the iPod
market.
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